Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1654 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1654 · IAH → DEN

departs 6:19 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1654 · IAH → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?