UA 1730 · SEA → LAX

departs 4:36 PM PT · arrives 7:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.04 in

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1730 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?