Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1794 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1794 · LGA → IAH

departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 6:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±10 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1794 · LGA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?