UA 1809 · SFO → RDM

departs 9:18 PM PT · arrives 10:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at RDM more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDM?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDM

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1809 · SFO → RDM

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDM?