Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1843 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 1843 · PSP → DEN

departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 4:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

Weather at each end

PSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1843 · PSP → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?