Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1852 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 1852 · IAH → MTY

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 3:15 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MTY?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into MTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MTY (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1852 · IAH → MTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTY?