Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1868 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 1868 · YVR → ORD

departs 10:25 AM PDT · arrives 4:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1868 · YVR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?