UA 1871 · AUS → IAH

departs 7:03 PM CT · arrives 8:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 733 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 7pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1871 · AUS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?