UA 1885 · PHX → SFO

departs 7:30 PM MT · arrives 9:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±6 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.75 in

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1885 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?