UA 1979 · IAH → SAN

departs 4:19 PM CT · arrives 5:47 PM PT

Your aircraft is N38459 (B739), coming in as UA 1405 from BZE: landed 3:30 PM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

82% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1979 · IAH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?