Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2040 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2040 · EWR → STL

departs 7:24 PM ET · arrives 8:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±8 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2040 · EWR → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?