Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2047 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2047 · LAS → SFO

departs 3:23 PM PT · arrives 5:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±14 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2047 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?