Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2049 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2049 · DEN → TUS

departs 3:47 PM MT · arrives 5:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Arrivals into TUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2049 · DEN → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?