Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2111 · SNA → SFO

departs 6:13 PM PT · arrives 7:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ SNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,967 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2111 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?