Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?