Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2168 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2168 · DEN → LGA

departs 4:00 PM MT · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2168 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?