UA 2179 · AUS → SFO

took off 8:26 PM CT · landed 9:54 PM PT (scheduled 7:56 PM CT → 9:46 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.27 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2179 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?