Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2216 · MSY → DEN

departs 5:57 PM CT · arrives 8:18 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2216 · MSY → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?