Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2243 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 2243 · SAT → ORD

departs 1:51 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.12 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2243 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?