Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2281 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2281 · SFO → SAT

departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 9:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 433 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling467 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2281 · SFO → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?