Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2291 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 2291 · PHX → EWR

departs 1:41 PM MT · arrives 9:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.65 in

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2291 · PHX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?