Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2397 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2397 · LAX → EWR

departs 9:00 PM PT · arrives 5:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±7 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ 9pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2397 · LAX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?