UA 2417 · ORD → SFO

left the gate 4:04 PM CT · taxiing (scheduled 4:06 PM CT → 6:50 PM PT)

Your aircraft is N94556 (A21N), coming in as UA 1393 from SFO: landed 2:00 PM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2417 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?