Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2429 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2429 · SFO → YVR

departs 6:20 PM PT · arrives 8:47 PM PDT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2429 · SFO → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?