Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2436 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2436 · SFO → DEN

departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 9:58 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2436 · SFO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?