Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2492 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 2492 · ORD → PNS

departs 10:39 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PNS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PNS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PNS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2492 · ORD → PNS

Odds over time

How late will it get to PNS?