Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 249 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 249 · ORD → EWR

departs 3:54 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±13 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 249 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?