Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2605 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2605 · ORD → LGA

departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2605 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?