Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2781 SCHEDULED

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 2781 · DEN → RAP

departs 7:24 PM MT · arrives 8:39 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RAP?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ RAP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

RAP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2781 · DEN → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?