UA 2801 · LAX → SMF

departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 8:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2801 · LAX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?