Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 2809 · ORD → DEN

departs 12:38 PM CT · arrives 2:11 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2809 · ORD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?