UA 280 · MCI → DEN

took off 6:04 PM CT · expected to land 6:21 PM MT (scheduled 5:16 PM CT → 6:12 PM MT)

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
51%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 280 · MCI → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?