UA 2825 · SFO → LAS

departs 4:46 PM PT · arrives 6:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2825 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?