UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

departs 8:22 PM PT · arrives 9:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.09 in

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?