Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 287 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 287 · PWM → DEN

departs 3:37 PM ET · arrives 6:16 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 287 · PWM → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?