Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 307 · ORD → SJC

departs 9:09 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 307 · ORD → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?