UA 308 · ORD → SNA

departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 10:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 308 · ORD → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?