UA 340 · IAH → SFO

departs 7:18 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 340 · IAH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?