Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3804 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 3804 · DEN → OKC

departs 12:53 PM MT · arrives 3:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OKC that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Arrivals into OKC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OKC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3804 · DEN → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?