Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3885 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 3885 · ORD → RFD

departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RFD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RFD?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Arrivals into RFD at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

RFD (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3885 · ORD → RFD

Odds over time

How late will it get to RFD?