Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3886 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 3886 · EWR → IAB

departs 10:22 PM ET · arrives 12:52 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IAB more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAB?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Arrivals into IAB at that hour are usually not late

↓ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAB (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3886 · EWR → IAB

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAB?