Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3909 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:37 AM CT, ETA 3:48 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 30 Today

UA 3909 · AUS → ORD

took off 1:37 AM CT · expected to land 3:48 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.14 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3909 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time