Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 406 · SFO → LAS

departs 9:15 PM PT · arrives 11:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 406 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?