Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 456 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 456 · ORD → LGA

departs 5:18 PM CT · arrives 8:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 456 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?