Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 487 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 487 · ORD → BOS

departs 3:56 PM CT · arrives 7:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ BOS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BOS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 487 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?