UA 536 · DEN → SJO

took off 4:19 PM MT · expected to land 9:17 PM CST (scheduled 3:41 PM MT → 9:04 PM CST)

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?

70% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJO?

LIVE

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Arrivals into SJO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SJO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 536 · DEN → SJO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJO?