Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 561 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 561 · MCI → SFO

departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.11 in

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 561 · MCI → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?