Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 602 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 602 · ORD → PHX

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 10:27 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±9 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 602 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?