Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 701 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 701 · IAH → SJU

departs 3:03 PM CT · arrives 8:38 PM AT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 701 · IAH → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?