Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 76 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 76 · SPN → GUM

departs 9:55 AM ChST · arrives 10:40 AM ChST

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUM?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SPN

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into GUM at that hour are usually not late

↓ 9am departures from SPN are usually not late

Weather at each end

SPN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

GUM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 76 · SPN → GUM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUM?